Tadej Pogacar cruised home after being led up the final climb of stage 14 by Jonas Vingegaard to add a further six seconds to his lead at the Tour de France on a brutal day in the Pyrenees on Saturday which saw white jersey Remco Evenepoel abandon and Thymen Arensman solo to glory.

Riding through the fog, wind and rain, Arensman went away on the summit finish at Luchon-Superbagneres to finally bring some optimism to Ineos Grenadiers after a tough opening fortnight.

There is little respite on the route of this year’s Tour and as has increasingly become the case, the third Sunday in the race is a transitional stage, but with a bit of a twist.

Stage 15’s 169.3km route from Muret to Carcassonne features only three categorised climbs but there is little flat for the peloton to find rhythm and the final 40km being downhill provides the potential for a game of cat and mouse between the sprinters’ teams and the breakaway.

When to bet

Stage 15 starts at 12.20pm on Sunday.

Where to watch the Tour de France

You can watch every stage of the 2025 live on TNT Sports & ITV4.

Best bet for Stage 15

Wout van Aert
1pt 5-1 bet365

Tour de France stage 15 predictions

Only the strongest survive at the Tour de France and on a miserable day that saw white jersey Remco Evenepoel abandon, Thymen Arensman rescued Ineos Grenadiers’ race with a solo victory on stage 14.

Evenepoel aside, there was little drama behind with Tadej Pogacar sitting on Jonas Vingegaard’s wheel on the final climb to the summit finish at Luchon-Superbagneres before dancing past the Dane to take second and extend his lead to four minutes and 13 seconds.

As has become the fashion, the third Sunday at the Tour is designed as one for the breakaway, but with a twist.

Stage 15’s 169.3km parcours from Muret to the medieval city of Carcassonne features only three categorised climbs, but the route continues to rise after the riders crest the category two Pas du Sant before a final 40 kilometres descent to the finish.

The intermediate sprint being 59.8km into the day means it might take a while for the racing to ignite. The break is likely to go from there but might be kept on a leash, with a game of cat and mouse likely to ensue as the sprinters’ teams look to set them up after battling through the mountains.

With an added chance of crosswinds, it could be a fascinating day despite the possibility that Pogacar and Vingegaard may call a truce before resuming hostilities in the Alps.

A sharp descender like Bahrain Victorious’ Matej Mohoric is worth consideration but the uncertainty over how things may unfold lends itself to a more versatile rider like Wout van Aert.

The Belgian has looked sharp at the 2025 Tour and might be allowed to attack if his Visma–Lease a Bike leader Vingegaard decides to ride in the pack.

Van Aert is an excellent descender who has also featured in the sprints, and that flexibility gives him multiple options if he finds himself in the mix.