The Nuggets did it. They accomplished job No. 1 for any road team in a playoff series.
It doesn’t matter Oklahoma City has outscored Denver by 41 points through two games; each team will enter Ball Arena for Game 3 on Friday with one win apiece.
It’s now on David Adelman’s Nuggets to keep home-court advantage against a Thunder team that won 68 games in the regular season and had the best net rating in league history.
Here are five storylines to watch as the series shifts west to the Front Range:
Russell Westbrook vs. Michael Porter Jr.
We’ve gone past the point of needing to preface any criticism of Michael Porter Jr.’s play by crediting his toughness for gutting through a shoulder injury that would otherwise have him sidelined. If he’s going to be on the floor, he must contribute. Right now the Nuggets’ best five-man lineup in the playoffs doesn’t include MPJ. Among five-man lineups that have played a minimum of 40 minutes together so far in the postseason, Denver’s lineup of Jamal Murray, Russell Westbrook, Christian Braun, Aaron Gordon and Nikola Jokic has the best offensive rating and is fourth in overall net rating. That group is Adelman’s best option right now.
Stopping SGA
The Nuggets have not had much of an answer to the likely MVP, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. In Game 1, he took a back seat to Jokic’s 42-point, 22-rebound performance, but he had 33 points, 10 rebounds and eight assists of his own. In Game 2, he was the star of the show, scoring 34 points (on just 13 shots) and dishing out another eight assists in just 30 minutes, leaving the court for the final time with a jaw-dropping plus-minus of +51.
Whether it’s Braun, Westbrook or whoever else gets switched on to him, Gilgeous-Alexander is having his way and he’s doing it largely on his own. Only three players in the playoffs (averaging a minimum of 20 minutes per game) have a higher percentage of unassisted field goals than the Thunder star point guard. He can create offense all by himself, and when you double team, he can create for others as he’s shown through two games.
Adjusting to the adjustment
Maybe it’s just hoping for a better whistle at home, but the Nuggets have to find a way to adjust to the physicality being played by the Thunder frontcourt after Game 1. OKC surprisingly came out with Chet Holmgren guarding Jokic and after the three-time MVP torched the Thunder 42 points, getting to the free throw line 13 times, OKC adjusted and had either Isaiah Hartenstein or Jaylin Williams, bigger-bodied centers, on him for the entirety of the first quarter of Game 2. Jokic was involved early and took a game-high 12 shots in the first half, but shot under 42% from the field and only got to the line five times as he was generally frustrated by the lack of foul calls against Hartenstein and Williams.
The Thunder bench
OKC is going to put the “role players play worse on the road” mantra to the test this weekend. As much as rotations shrink across the league in the playoffs, Thunder coach Mark Daigneault is still regularly playing 10 players in his rotation against the Nuggets, even before Game 2 got out of hand and both benches emptied. Whether it was Alex Caruso in Game 1 or Cason Wallace and Isaiah Joe in Game 2, someone has provided a big lift as a reserve. If OKC can replicate that in Denver, it might go back home with a pair of wins and a chance to finish the series in five games.
Christian Braun’s offense
Braun was one of the heroes of the Clippers series and not just for his defense on James Harden. His 21 points and three 3-pointers was a big reason Denver blew out L.A. in Game 7 and it should be no coincidence his best game was also the Nuggets’ most convincing victory in round one. But after scoring nearly 13 points per game against the Clippers, he’s scored just 14 points total across the first two games against the Thunder. He’s got such a large task in guarding Gilgeous-Alexander on defense, but the Nuggets are going to need a lot more on offense from Braun in Games 3 and 4, whether that’s getting out in transition or simply knocking down open threes.
