I’ve read the messages.
Seen the Tweets.
And yet I’m going to dust myself off and go again.
My prediction of Penrith beating Gold Coast by 40 points last Saturday appeared on track at half-time before a bizarre series of events saw Ivan Cleary’s side almost lose the match, culminating with an incredible Golden Point win.
So, Penrith didn’t win by 40. They should have. There is no doubt the second half collapse would concern Cleary, but this wild season is delivering the unexpected everywhere you turn.
Despite my slight red face after my prediction last weekend, I’m foolish enough to believe Penrith will beat Newcastle pretty handsomely on Friday night.
That’s despite what happened in Bathurst back in May, when the Knights downed the Panthers 25-6.
It was supposed to be the final nail in Penrith’s season but it ended up sparking a revival, with Penrith not losing since – a winning run that now extends into eight matches.
That loss in Bathurst was important. It saw some of Penrith’s growing leaders stand taller, determined to correct the course. And it was the wake-up call the defending champions needed.
As boxes have been ticked since, Penrith would have had one eye on this game – the opportunity to get one back on the Knights, who left them embarrassed in front of their regional fans at Carrington Park.
The Knights have been poor over the last month. A 32-14 loss to the Storm, followed by that heartbreaker against the Warriors and then pretty disappointing against Canberra in their last start, losing 44-18.
I’m not sure how motivated the Knights will be over this final period of the competition.
The Finals are gone, Adam O’Brien is likely finished as coach and injuries have had a significant impact on the side’s ability to build any momentum or consistency through the year.
The Knights have been forced to make more tackles than any other side in the competition this year. They just can’t control the momentum, can’t dig into matches and get enough ball to have a decent crack. They spend all their time defending and then have little to offer in attack. And of course, their halves crisis still hasn’t been solved.
Newcastle’s handling errors are right up there with the worst in the competition.
All of this suits Penrith’s style of play perfectly. The opportunity to strangle an opposition. The chance to kick their opponents to death.
All of that while Penrith’s younger rising stars are finding their feet at the right time of the season.
Casey McLean’s future is so bright that he could become one of the greats if the trajectory continues, and he remains injury-free.
And after a slow start, Blaize Talagi is really finding his combination with Nathan Cleary and is starting to light up the field – just as coach Cleary knew he eventually would, as he stayed patient in that opening period.
And who would have thought that Tom Jenkins would be such a dynamic try scorer this season?
There’s every chance Penrith could be playing for a top four position here, pending other results across the weekend. With so much to play for, Penrith will win and win big.
And so with the risk of more egg being thrown at my face, I’m doubling down – the Panthers will put the cleaners through the Knights in this one, and confirm their threat to this Premiership.
Tip: Panthers by 24.
