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JUST IN: An NFL expert outlines five reasons why Penn State will defeat Notre Dame in the CFP semi-finals; the final two reasons startled the supporters.

by stephen ahile
January 6, 2025
0

While we know Notre Dame football will need to beat Penn State on Thursday for a chance to play in the College Football Playoff championship game, it’s time to dream a bit.

How to buy Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Penn State Nittany Lions Orange  Bowl - Semifinal tickets

This new 12-team tournament has changed the landscape of the sport, and in my eyes for the better. There will be changes to the format, as there should be given the issues we have seen such as undeserving teams receiving byes and the choosing of weaker teams with good records.

Format issues aside, the Irish are knocking on the door of winning their first championship since 1988. Here are five reasons that streak will end in just over two weeks.

Notre Dame’s defense

Jan. 2, 2025; New Orleans, Louisiana; Notre Dame Fighting Irish defensive lineman RJ Oben (9) knocks the ball loose from Georgia Bulldogs quarterback Gunner Stockton (14) for a fumble recovered by Notre Dame Fighting Irish defensive lineman Junior Tuihalamaka (44) during the first half at Caesars Superdome. Stephen Lew-Imagn Images
This unit continues to impress, as it has given up 27 points in two playoff games. Holding an opposing team to just about two touchdowns per game is pretty impressive. Indiana came in as one of the best statistical offenses in the country, and Notre Dame caught a break when it didn’t have to face Georgia’s starter. Regardless, this group has been fantastic, and as we have seen, this defense travels.

Special teams

Nov. 16, 2024; South Bend, Indiana; Notre Dame Fighting Irish Special teams coordinator Marty Biagi celebrates in the first quarter against the Virginia Cavaliers at Notre Dame Stadium. Matt Cashore-Imagn Images
Sure, the Irish weren’t perfect against the Bulldogs, but there were multiple factors that stood out in that game. Kicker Mitch Jeter looked like the groin injury might be behind him, hitting all three of his field goals and every extra point. The trick plays have happened all year, with the biggest so far coming against Georgia. There is no doubt in my mind, more trickery is up the coaches’ sleeves.

Notre Dame’s confidence

Jan. 2, 2025; New Orleans, Louisiana; Notre Dame Fighting Irish linebacker Jaiden Ausberry (4) celebrates after recovering a fumble during the first quarter after the game during the first half at Caesars Superdome. Amber Searls-Imagn Images
This is hard to quantify, but when you see it, you know it. Right now, there is no team this Notre Dame squad doesn’t believe it can’t defeat. The “aura” of the SEC was beaten down on Thursday. Now it’s the Big Ten standing in front of them. Having the feeling you can pull out a win, regardless of an opponent, is a powerful one, and Notre Dame has it right now.

Marcus Freeman

Jan. 2, 2025; New Orleans, Louisiana; Notre Dame Fighting Irish coach Marcus Freeman (right) reacts on the sidelines in the final minute against the Georgia Bulldogs during the fourth quarter at Caesars Superdome. Geoff Burke-Imagn Images
You have to buy into a coach and what he is leading you into, and it very much seems like this team does. Quarterback Riley Leonard explained in the postgame media session that Freeman tinkered with the full line change play, as it was different just a few days before. The team executed it perfectly, even confusing Bulldog coach Kirby Smart. Freeman has the whole team believing they can win this, and like the confidence, it can go a long way.

Battle tested

Notre Dame offensive lineman Aamil Wagner (59) throws wide receiver Jaden Greathouse (1) into the air after a Greathouse touchdown during a NCAA college football game between Notre Dame and Louisville at Notre Dame Stadium on Saturday, Sept. 28, 2024, in South Bend.
Experience is huge in this kind of environment. While the Irish didn’t have much, they do now in the playoff arena. What they have more than the rest of the remaining field is big-game experience as well. Penn State has really only faced two tough teams this fall and lost to both. Yes, they have gotten two wins in the playoff, but most other teams would be able to say the same had they faced SMU and Boise State. Notre Dame is the first team to beat an AP-ranked opponent in six different months according to OptaSTATS. They have the most experience against ranked teams in the semifinals.

Tags: Notre Dame football
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