The four drivers who have won at Martinsville in the Next Gen era all rank among the tops in the sport.
William Byron won the first one in 2022, then Christopher Bell in the playoff elimination race. Kyle Larson won in the spring of 2023 and then Ryan Blaney in the playoff elimination race. Byron earned his second win at the track last April.
What do all four have in common?
All of them could use a win next Sunday to earn a spot in NASCAR’s Championship 4. Bell and Byron currently are above the cutline but if any of the four drivers — Larson, Denny Hamlin, Blaney and Chase Elliott — below the cutline win the race, it will be a scramble for the one remaining spot on points. Hamlin and Elliott also have won at Martinsville, but that came prior to the newest version of the NASCAR Cup Series car.
“It’s going to be a war at Martinsville — and I’m excited for it,” Bell said.
NASCAR’s version of the playoffs — where those outside the playoffs still compete each week as well — runs over the final 10 races of the season. The first three rounds consist of three races, and the four winless drivers in the round lowest in points are eliminated, setting up four drivers who are eligible for the title in the season finale at Phoenix with the driver who finishes the best (they don’t get stage points) crowned the champion.
In each round, the advancing drivers’ point totals are reset (2000 in the first round, 3000 in the quarterfinal round, 4000 in the semifinal round, 5000 for the championship) with the playoff points they earned during the season added to their total except for the championship race.
The tracks:
- Opening round: Atlanta (winner-Joey Logano), Watkins Glen (winner-Chris Buescher, not a playoff driver), Bristol (winner-Kyle Larson). Advanced: Logano, Larson, Austin Cindric, Chase Elliott, Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney, Chase Briscoe, Christopher Bell, William Byron, Tyler Reddick, Alex Bowman and Daniel Suarez. Eliminated from playoff contention: Ty Gibbs, Martin Truex Jr., Brad Keselowski and Harrison Burton.
- Quarterfinal round: Kansas (winner-Ross Chastain, not a playoff driver), Talladega (winner-Ricky Stenhouse Jr., not a playoff driver), Charlotte (winner-Kyle Larson). Advanced: Byron, Larson, Bell, Blaney, Elliott, Hamlin, Reddick and Logano. Eliminated from playoff contention: Bowman, Cindric, Suarez, Briscoe.
- Semifinal round: Las Vegas (winner-Logano), Homestead (winner-Reddick), Martinsville (0.526-mile oval). Advanced: Logano, Reddick, TBA.
- Championship: Phoenix (1-mile oval).
Here’s my playoff rankings based on best shot to win the title to the worst shot.
1. Christopher Bell (Last Week: 1)
Joe Gibbs Racing No. 20 Toyota
Position: 3rd, +29 on the playoff cutoff
April 2024 Martinsville finish: 35th
Bell clinches a spot in the Championship 4 with 33 points at Martinsville, which is a third-place finish if he doesn’t earn stage points. He is in a decent spot since he has a 22-point gap on William Byron, a 29-point gap on Kyle Larson and a 40-point gap on Denny Hamlin. So if he can get some stage points and doesn’t wreck (or get wrecked), he should be OK to get the spot on points. But Martinsville is a place to get wrecked. And yet, look at his playoffs — five top-5 finishes in the eight races and only one finish worse than seventh. He keeps the top spot in these rankings because as the winner at Phoenix in the spring, if he makes the Championship 4, he’ll be the favorite.
Prediction:Â Championship 4 but no title (no change)
2. Tyler Reddick (LW: 8)
23XI Racing No. 45 Toyota
Position: Advanced to Champ 4
April 2024 Martinsville finish: 7th
Reddick has secured a spot in the Championship 4. Now he can prepare for Phoenix, which is a good thing as he was 10th in the spring and 22nd there a year ago. He has two top-5s in nine starts there and an average finish of 17.9. But still more worrisome is that his win at Homestead was his first top-5 and just his second top-10 of the playoffs. The inconsistency makes him hard to predict.
Prediction:Â Championship 4 but no title (change from eliminated in the semifinal round)
3. Kyle Larson (LW: 2)
Hendrick Motorsports No. 5 Chevrolet
Position: 5th, -7 on the playoff cutoff
April 2024 Martinsville finish: 2nd
Another driver who has battled inconsistency is Larson, who has two wins in the playoffs but just three top-10 finishes (all top-5s) in the eight playoff races. He likely will need to rally over his teammate William Byron, who won at Martinsville in the spring. Will he feast at Martinsville? Having picked him to win the title, I’m not willing to abandon the Larson train just yet. But, man, it’s been a bumpy ride and a season mixed with big wins and major disappointments seems to be leaning toward a disappointing finish.
Prediction:Â Champion (no change)
4. Joey Logano (LW: 4)
Team Penske No. 22 Ford
Position: Advanced to Champ 4
April 2024 Martinsville finish: 6th
Logano is just enjoying life as he didn’t have to sweat Homestead and won’t have to sweat Martinsville thanks to the Vegas win. They already have started working on Phoenix, and he will need to find something that he didn’t have a year ago when he finished 18th (he was wrecked out of the spring race and finished 34th). His group is veteran enough that they don’t need momentum going into Phoenix, and that’s a good thing.
Prediction:Â Championship 4 but no title (change from eliminated in semifinal round)
5. William Byron (LW: 3)
Hendrick Motorsports No. 24 Chevrolet
Position: 4th, +7 on the playoff cutoff
April 2024 Martinsville finish: 1st
Can Byron hold serve and remain above the playoff cutline? He is great at Martinsville (two career victories) and will need to hold off two other drivers in Larson and Hamlin who are great in Martinsville when it comes to points. Which Byron shows up? The one who won in the spring or the one who finished 13th a year ago? A 13th won’t get it done this time.
Prediction:Â Eliminated in the semifinal round (change from making the Championship 4)
6. Denny Hamlin (LW: 5)
Joe Gibbs Racing No. 11 Toyota
Position: 6th, -18 on the playoff cutoff
April 2024 Martinsville finish: 11th
Last year, a third at Martinsville wasn’t good enough for Hamlin to advance. It might not be good enough this year as well. Hamlin is strong enough to rack up some points but whether he can win in the Next Gen car at Martinsville is still to be determined — his last win at the track came in 2015. How does the saying go? There’s always next year. Of course, Hamlin has heard and said that before.
Prediction:Â Eliminated in the semifinal round (no change)
7. Ryan Blaney (LW: 7)
Team Penske No. 12 Ford
Position: 7th, -38 on playoff cutoff
April 2024 Martinsville finish: 5th
Blaney is virtually in a must-win situation. He knows the feeling as he won a year ago at Martinsville on his way to the Cup title. He does have one win this year on a short track with a victory at Iowa, but whether it is debatable whether that is even remotely comparable to the shorter, flatter Martinsville track. Still, this team has fight in it that won it the title last year, so don’t count it out.
Prediction:Â Eliminated in semifinal round (no change)
8. Chase Elliott (LW: 6)
Hendrick Motorsports No. 9 Chevrolet
Position: 8th, -43 on the playoff cutoff
April 2024 Martinsville finish: 3rd
Elliott said he has confidence he can win at Martinsville, and the fact he has two top-5 finishes in the last three Cup races is enough to give him that confidence. He also has four top-5 finishes in six short-track races this year. He pretty much has shown consistent speed but just hasn’t won except for at Texas (a 1.5-mile track). Again, don’t count him out. But probably wouldn’t count him in with the must-win situation.
Prediction:Â Eliminated in semifinal round (no change)
