Second last on the ladder. Four straight losses. A new halves pairing still finding its feet. This isn’t a crisis yet — but Saturday in Perth is the line between a slump and a genuine problem.
Twelve months ago, the Canberra Raiders were minor premiers. They had won 16 of their last 18 games to storm to the top of the ladder, were widely considered the benchmark of the competition, and had Ricky Stuart firmly in the Dally M Coach of the Year conversation. It feels like a lifetime ago.
The 2026 Raiders sit second last on the NRL ladder with a 1-4 record, their only win a golden point thriller over Manly in Round 1 that now looks like it may have set unrealistic expectations for what followed. Four straight losses have arrived in increasingly painful fashion — each one carrying its own particular sting — and Saturday’s clash with the free-flowing South Sydney Rabbitohs at Optus Stadium in Perth is exactly the kind of match that separates a slow start from a season-defining crisis.
How the losses happened
Look at the four defeats and a pattern emerges that is more worrying than the results alone. This is not a team being beaten by the competition’s elite. These are losses across the board — to mid-table sides, in close games and blowouts alike — that suggest systemic issues rather than bad luck.
The 6-40 demolition at the Warriors’ hands in Round 2 was a brutal early-season reality check. The narrow 10-14 loss to the Bulldogs in Round 3 stung even more — a game the Raiders had the talent to win and didn’t, unable to sustain pressure when it mattered. By the time the Knights put 32 on them in Round 5, the questions around the new halves combination of Ethan Strange and Ethan Sanders were no longer hypothetical. They were the story.
The halves problem nobody wants to name
Ricky Stuart is publicly standing by Ethan Strange and Ethan Sanders. That is what coaches do. But the numbers tell their own story — the Raiders are averaging just 15.8 points per game across five rounds, a figure that puts them below four teams who have played a game fewer due to byes. Sanders has managed just two try assists this season, and his passing game is drawing scrutiny from observers who believe the combination needs a structural rethink rather than more time to settle.
One possible solution being floated in Raiders circles is moving Daine Laurie to halfback and shifting Strange back to the left edge, where his running game could be more threatening. Whether Stuart pulls that trigger in Perth — or backs his current spine for another week — is the selection subplot that will define how the Raiders approach the second month of their season.
“There’s not a lot wrong with the Raiders that a re-jigging of the team can’t fix.”
— Fan sentiment from The Front Row Forums, April 2026
Why Perth might actually suit them
Here is the thing about Saturday’s match that the narrative of a struggling Raiders side tends to obscure: the numbers strongly favour Canberra when these two meet, regardless of form. The Raiders have won six of their last seven games against the Rabbitohs. They have won 10 of the last 13 encounters overall. And perhaps most strikingly — the Raiders have a perfect 5-from-5 record when playing in Perth, although their last appearance there was back in 1997.
The head-to-head record is genuinely remarkable given Souths’ pedigree, and it adds a layer of genuine intrigue to a match that, on paper, looks like a mismatch. Canberra also arrive as underdogs — a role, interestingly, in which they have historically performed well. Their record as an underdog of at least a try sits at 16-11 against the spread, and they are 15-8 ATS coming off a game in which they conceded 30 or more points. Wounded Raiders sides tend to fight back.
“Beware the wounded Raider. A proud fighter.”
— The Front Row Forums
What Souths bring — and why this is no gimme
South Sydney arrive in Perth in excellent shape. Wayne Bennett’s side have won three of their opening four games, including a dominant 32-24 Good Friday victory over the Canterbury Bulldogs — a result that raised eyebrows given how solid the Dogs’ defence has been this season. The Rabbitohs are averaging big scores, and their left edge combination of Latrell Mitchell and Alex Johnston has been simply electric — the pair have combined for 10 of Souths’ 19 tries this season.
The return of Brandon Smith from a calf injury suffered in the pre-season is a major boost for Bennett, who now has his first-choice starting hooker available for the first time in 2026. Smith goes straight into the starting side, with Peter Mamouzelos and Bronson Garlick providing deep bench cover at nine. With Cameron Murray leading from the front and David Fifita adding thunder in the back row, this is a formidable Rabbitohs outfit.
And yet — Perth has not been kind to Souths in recent years. The Rabbitohs have lost their last five games in Western Australia, a record that adds another compelling subplot to an already layered match.
The Raiders’ reasons to believe
What a loss means
If the Raiders lose on Saturday, they will have played five games and won one. They will sit second last on the ladder with the season already in danger of slipping away. The competition is merciless — by Round 6, a side with two competition points needs to start climbing or the mathematics of a premiership challenge become almost impossible.
More pressingly: a fifth straight loss would intensify the questions around Stuart’s selections, the halves combination, and whether the 2025 minor premiers were a genuine powerhouse or, as one commentator put it, “the most fortuitous minor premiers in the NRL era” — a team that won a string of 1-12 and 1-6 decisions that were never going to be sustainable.
The Raiders’ management, players and fan base know what is at stake. The squad that won 16 of 18 last season is still largely intact. The talent is there. What is missing is the belief and the structure that turns that talent into wins.
Perth — of all places — is where they get the chance to find it again.
Twelve months ago the Raiders were minor premiers. Today they are second last. Rugby league seasons are long, form is cyclical, and one win — especially against a side they have dominated historically — can change everything. But they have to get it. And they have to get it now.
